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Sandra Halliday Published
July 25, 2025
As clothing prices continue to increase in the UK (while still lagging the overall rate of inflation), a new report says that the total inflation rate could reach 15% this winter.
EY-Parthenon, the consultancy arm of EY, said that in a worst-case scenario, inflation could outstrip current official predictions. That worst case would come if Russia’s President Putin blocked gas supplies to Europe, with food prices soaring.
But the Times reported that it also has a best-case scenario in which inflation peaks at just over 10% and then begins to fall back.
Inflation remains a key concern for shoppers with consumer confidence falling on the back of it. And it’s a big issue for the two politicians currently battling it out for leadership of the Conservative party and to become Prime Minister.
The UK’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 9.4% in the 12 months to June 2025, up from 9.1% in May, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said last week.
But the annual rate for clothing and footwear lagged that at +6.1%, after a rise of 6.9% in May. However, it was still a hefty increase and came despite fashion prices usually dropping in June as the clearance sales get under way.
Even if they haven’t raised prices already, a number of brands have said they need to increase them from the autumn season. And even if fashion prices continue to lag wider inflation, by the end of the year, they could still be heading towards double-digit increases. And in EY’s worst-case scenario, they’d be likely to break though that double-digit barrier, an issue that could see this year’s relatively buoyant fashion sales grinding to a halt.